Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
